Net Zero mobility for all
The UK’s progress towards net zero mobility has been delivered by the market at pace, driven by massive investment by manufacturers in delivering choice across every vehicle type.
Progress towards net zero mobility
Within a decade, choice has gone from just 16 battery electric car models, to more than 100, covering every vehicle segment. Uptake has gone
from fewer than two new BEV registrations per hour, to almost 37 per hour reaching a market share of around 19%. It means the UK is Europe’s biggest zero emission car market.
While this growth has been impressive, market share has plateaued since consumer incentives ended in 2022, when under the Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme (VETS) it needs to accelerate. VETS has also introduced new challenges in planning and product allocation.
The Plan
Support retail consumers buying new EVs by temporarily halving VAT and amending the Vehicle Excise Duty expensive car supplement, to avoid an EV tax hike in 2025 hitting new and used car buyers.
Maintain existing grants for commercial vehicles and revitalise the Plug-in Truck Grant to more accurately reflect the wider choice now on offer.
Commit to an infrastructure strategy which enables the rollout and funding of commercial and heavy duty vehicle networks to support the movement of goods and people across the country.
Ensure everyone has a ‘right to charge’ by mandating delivery of public charging and refuelling infrastructure across the UK with binding targets, leading to a significant uplift and reliability of all types of public chargers across the whole UK.
Cut VAT on public charging to 5% in line with home charging.
A regulatory framework to 2035/40 that enables an equitable consumer and business transition to zero emission vehicles – providing investment certainty, delivering consumer choices and rewarding innovation.
The Prize
New SMMT research suggests that if market and tax enablers remain as they currently are, there will be almost 6.4 million electric cars reaching the road between now and the end of 2030 – rising to 16.3 million by the end of 2035.
This assumes no disruption to supply or economic shocks, chargepoint rollout keeping pace with uptake and consumer demand for ZEVs being sufficient for manufacturers to easily meet the
VETS requirements.
However, halving VAT for three years, building fairness into the tax system that rewards rather than penalises drivers for going zero emission, and developing an infrastructure network ahead of need, would accelerate uptake and decarbonise road transport. Under this scenario around 6.9 million ZEVs could be added to the road by 2030.
By the end of 2035, this would rise to more than 17 million new EV cars on the road – half of all cars in use, and ensuring a fair, just transition. Cumulatively, the EV market value over the next decade would be approximately £800 million, and would make the overall market on average 10% larger than today. The opportunity would also be massive for commercial vehicle uptake as our culture shifts towards an expectation that road transport should be zero emission.
The emissions decline across all vehicle types would be profound. By the end of 2035, total UK car CO2 emissions would be 55% lower than today. Over the next decade, this would cut total CO2
emissions by some 175Mt.
The impact on air quality in urban areas would also be significant, particularly as commercial vehicles and public transport follow suit. Indeed, with the right policies, the new bus market could be entirely zero emission by 2030, providing a monumental opportunity for everyone – whether they can drive, or not – to access zero emission mobility.
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