UK new car and van outlookThe latest market outlook for the new car and light commercial vehicle markets. The outlook is revised quarterly in January, April, July and October. SMMT Data shopTo purchase more detailed data visit the SMMT DataShop SHOP NOWThe outlook is set against a subdued economic outlook, with consumer and business confidence under-pressure from the cost of living crisis and Autumn Budget tax increases (like NICs).The Budget also announced a series of motoring tax changes, though their full implications are still to be fully assessed. In addition, we are in the midst of a consultation around the ZEV Mandate. We have downgraded our outlook for the overall new car and LCV markets from our November view.However, our outlook for BEV share in the car market remains largely unchanged, but we have further trimmed our forecast for LCVs. The outlook is typically revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.LCVs = light commercial vehicles to 3.5t gvw. Fuel type split is within the total market data. Diesel and petrol include mild hybrids. BEV = Battery electric vehicle; PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; HEV = Hybrid electric vehicles. January 2025 OutlookthousandsAll carsTotalPetrolCarsDiesel carsBEV carsPHEV carsHEVcarsAll LCV totalBEV LCVs20162,6931,3191,285102950376120192,3111,525616383598366320231,9031,0661423151412383412020241,9531,019123382167261352212025 (f)1,949899102462198287348332026 (f)2,0138288857021830935654SMMT outlook for 2025 to 2026 – as at January 20252025Car registrations expected to dip -0.2% to 1.949 million units (we said 1.977mn in Nov)BEV registrations are expected to rise 21.4% to push share to 23.7% (we said 23.4% share in Nov)PHEV market is anticipated to rise 18.4%, pushing market share to 10.2%HEV market share is expected to reach 14.7%, after a 10.0% rise in volumesDiesel market share is anticipated to decline to 5.2% after a 17% fall in volumesPetrol market is expected to decline -11.7%, reducing market share to 46.2%LCV market outlook is for a -1.2% decline to 348,000 units (down from 356,000 view gave in Nov)LCV BEV share is expected to reach 9.6% (we said 10.6% in Nov), with volumes up 63%2026Car market expected to surpass two million units for first time since 2019, up 3.3% to 2.013 million units (we said 2.049mn in Nov)BEV market share anticipated to reach 28.3%, with volumes up 23.3% on our 2025 outlookPHEV market share is expected to grow 9.9% to push market share to 10.8%HEV market outlook is for 7.6% growth to take market share to 15.4%Diesel market share is anticipated to decline by further -13.5% taking share to 4.4%Petrol market outlook is for a -7.9% volume fall, reducing market share to 41.1%LCV market is expected to grow 2.4% to 356,000 units (a 10,000 cut on our Nov view)BEV market share is expected to reach 15.2% (down from our Nov view of 16.9%), after 61.5% growthNote: outlooks rounded to nearest 1,000 units (% changes based on the exact outlook). Reasonable care has been taken in preparing this information. It is not an exclusive aid for market analysis. Other sources and market intelligence should be reviewed. Next Forecast Next revision and contact: The outlook is scheduled to be next revised in April 2025 and the results will be posted by 6 May.The project work is managed by SMMT’s Economics team econoweb@smmt.co.ukSMMT UpdateSign up Sign up to the SMMT Update Newsletter for weekly automotive news and data"*" indicates required fieldsFull name...*Email address...* Company...*Job title...*Consent I agree to the SMMT Privacy Policy.This website is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. subscribe Vehicle Data SMMT Vehicle Data
UK new car and van outlookThe latest market outlook for the new car and light commercial vehicle markets. The outlook is revised quarterly in January, April, July and October. SMMT Data shopTo purchase more detailed data visit the SMMT DataShop SHOP NOWThe outlook is set against a subdued economic outlook, with consumer and business confidence under-pressure from the cost of living crisis and Autumn Budget tax increases (like NICs).The Budget also announced a series of motoring tax changes, though their full implications are still to be fully assessed. In addition, we are in the midst of a consultation around the ZEV Mandate. We have downgraded our outlook for the overall new car and LCV markets from our November view.However, our outlook for BEV share in the car market remains largely unchanged, but we have further trimmed our forecast for LCVs. The outlook is typically revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.LCVs = light commercial vehicles to 3.5t gvw. Fuel type split is within the total market data. Diesel and petrol include mild hybrids. BEV = Battery electric vehicle; PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; HEV = Hybrid electric vehicles. January 2025 OutlookthousandsAll carsTotalPetrolCarsDiesel carsBEV carsPHEV carsHEVcarsAll LCV totalBEV LCVs20162,6931,3191,285102950376120192,3111,525616383598366320231,9031,0661423151412383412020241,9531,019123382167261352212025 (f)1,949899102462198287348332026 (f)2,0138288857021830935654SMMT outlook for 2025 to 2026 – as at January 20252025Car registrations expected to dip -0.2% to 1.949 million units (we said 1.977mn in Nov)BEV registrations are expected to rise 21.4% to push share to 23.7% (we said 23.4% share in Nov)PHEV market is anticipated to rise 18.4%, pushing market share to 10.2%HEV market share is expected to reach 14.7%, after a 10.0% rise in volumesDiesel market share is anticipated to decline to 5.2% after a 17% fall in volumesPetrol market is expected to decline -11.7%, reducing market share to 46.2%LCV market outlook is for a -1.2% decline to 348,000 units (down from 356,000 view gave in Nov)LCV BEV share is expected to reach 9.6% (we said 10.6% in Nov), with volumes up 63%2026Car market expected to surpass two million units for first time since 2019, up 3.3% to 2.013 million units (we said 2.049mn in Nov)BEV market share anticipated to reach 28.3%, with volumes up 23.3% on our 2025 outlookPHEV market share is expected to grow 9.9% to push market share to 10.8%HEV market outlook is for 7.6% growth to take market share to 15.4%Diesel market share is anticipated to decline by further -13.5% taking share to 4.4%Petrol market outlook is for a -7.9% volume fall, reducing market share to 41.1%LCV market is expected to grow 2.4% to 356,000 units (a 10,000 cut on our Nov view)BEV market share is expected to reach 15.2% (down from our Nov view of 16.9%), after 61.5% growthNote: outlooks rounded to nearest 1,000 units (% changes based on the exact outlook). Reasonable care has been taken in preparing this information. It is not an exclusive aid for market analysis. Other sources and market intelligence should be reviewed. Next Forecast Next revision and contact: The outlook is scheduled to be next revised in April 2025 and the results will be posted by 6 May.The project work is managed by SMMT’s Economics team econoweb@smmt.co.ukSMMT UpdateSign up Sign up to the SMMT Update Newsletter for weekly automotive news and data"*" indicates required fieldsFull name...*Email address...* Company...*Job title...*Consent I agree to the SMMT Privacy Policy.This website is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. subscribe
